Navigating Risk: The Importance of Planning for Low Probability, High Impact Risks
Believing that disaster is impossible can often lead to unthinkable disaster.
This statement came from Gerald Weinberg; in his book, he refers to this concept as the “Titanic Effect”. As with the Titanics, ignoring warnings to prepare for the unlikely can cause deadly results.
Why Preparing for Low-Probability Incidents Matters
Governments and other bodies prepare for low-probability, high-risk events all the time, such as hurricanes, terrorist attacks, and other natural or human threats. In businesses and other organizations, we can take direction from their preparedness in informing the importance of being ready for these types of occurrences.
Low probability events create difficult decision making processes for people. When an event is viewed as unlikely, it can be easy to shrug off risk. Many behaviours in the workplace can be viewed as “safe” when they are actually low-probability risks. However, because many of our actions in the workplace are performed over and over again, mitigating this risk becomes more important. The more times an action is performed, the more likely something will happen, even if the probability is low.
If a worker routinely works around heavy machinery, they may become “numb” to the risks as they rarely result in an injury. However, they still need to follow all safety precautions as the danger is still present.
In the workplace, many people use experience and common sense to deal with potentially risky situations. While this is an effective way of dealing with more high probability risks, the innate lack of experience we have with handling the results of low probability risks means that common sense and experience are not nearly as effective tools. When businesses build their processes around common sense and experience, this results in the perpetuation of low-probability incidents.
The Difficulty with Encouraging Safety with Low-Probability Risks
When an unexpected accident occurs while performing a regular task, people will often blame the variables: perhaps they were more tired that day, or maybe something was different about the environment. Although the variable may be a factor in the cause of the incident, controlling variables will rarely be a functional solution to preventing accidents.
When dealing with high-impact, low-probability events, early warnings must be taken seriously, and then followed by recommended steps for handling the potential risk. There will be times where early warnings are false positives - by their very nature, early warnings are uncertain. However, by paying attention to these signs, decision-makers can take timely action and prevent disaster.
A worker on a construction site suffers an injury from a fall. It might be a knee-jerk reaction to say that something in the environment, like brighter sun or more wind that day, was the cause. Really, the height risk and the low probability of falls probably had a greater contribution to the incident.
However, when the processes required of a worker show very little “effectiveness” against the risks they face, this can lead to frustration and a lack of understanding. Because the likelihood of the risk being present is low, it can make the worker feel as if the risk is non-existent. Thinking that safety processes are “overkill” may result in workers taking unnecessary risks. And while the low probability of risk may mean that they never end up experiencing an accident, the high-impact of the risk means that if they do, the results can be fatal.
How to Prevent Low-Probability, High-Impact Incidents
To prevent low-probability, high-impact accidents in the workplace, there are three approaches that businesses can follow:
Fix the environment - make changes to the work environment that separates the worker from the risk. These are often Engineering Controls
Control the variables - use controls that will lessen variables that can make incidents more likely to occur. These can be Engineering or Administrative Controls
Determine preventative strategies - create processes and other requirements that lessen the likelihood of an incident occurring. These often come in the form of Administrative Controls or PPE
Organizations can also work to create a culture of safety to help support the controls they put in place. When workers believe in the importance of safety, they will be more likely to continue to follow the regulations and protect themselves and others. For more information on creating a culture of safety in your workplace, check out this post.